A Seat at the Table?

Artificial Intelligence and the Political Foundations of International Conflict Mediation.

CIM Strategic Analysis

[CIM]

Artificial intelligence is already reshaping international conflict mediation—often invisibly. It rarely “sits” at the negotiating table, but it increasingly influences what mediators see, which risks get prioritized, and which arguments are treated as credible. That shift can strengthen mediation by widening information intake, speeding synthesis, and improving early warning. It can also weaken mediation by concentrating technical authority, narrowing political contestation, and creating new asymmetries through opacity, access gaps, and the false appearance of neutrality—especially in high-stakes resource negotiations such as international water diplomacy.

In this CIM Strategic Analysis, Dr. Tanja Flanagan maps where AI touches the mediation lifecycle (from pre-engagement analysis to implementation and monitoring), identifies the key advantages and structural risks, and sets out practical design rules and red lines to preserve legitimacy, trust, and political ownership. The core conclusion is disciplined: AI can support mediation only when it functions as infrastructure, not authority.

Download the full report below.

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